The Rise of the Rest

Newsweek ran an interesting article called The Rise of the Rest. It is an upbeat look at how the world is moving away from having a single superpower-- a situation that was always unstable, of course.

The post-American world is naturally an unsettling prospect for Americans, but it should not be. This will not be a world defined by the decline of America but rather the rise of everyone else. It is the result of a series of positive trends that have been progressing over the last 20 years.

[The author then debunks a number of potential objections to the phrase "positive trends"...] It turns out that we'll probably survive just fine as the rest of the world grows in prosperity and power:

Per capita, it turns out, the United States trains more engineers than either of the Asian giants [China and India].

But America's hidden secret is that most of these engineers are immigrants. Foreign students and immigrants account for almost 50 percent of all science researchers in the country. In 2006 they received 40 percent of all PhDs. By 2010, 75 percent of all science PhDs in this country will be awarded to foreign students. When these graduates settle in the country, they create economic opportunity. Half of all Silicon Valley start-ups have one founder who is an immigrant or first generation American. The potential for a new burst of American productivity depends not on our education system or R&D spending, but on our immigration policies. If these people are allowed and encouraged to stay, then innovation will happen here. If they leave, they'll take it with them.

More broadly, this is America's great—and potentially insurmountable—strength. It remains the most open, flexible society in the world, able to absorb other people, cultures, ideas, goods, and services. The country thrives on the hunger and energy of poor immigrants. Faced with the new technologies of foreign companies, or growing markets overseas, it adapts and adjusts. When you compare this dynamism with the closed and hierarchical nations that were once superpowers, you sense that the United States is different and may not fall into the trap of becoming rich, and fat, and lazy.

American society can adapt to this new world. But can the American government?...

Yes, it's true. Our greatest weakness is likely to be the slow adaptation of those in Washington, D.C.

But like the author, I see the "demotion" of the US from Leader of the World as a potentially positive shift. It would allow us to change our values from an unending quest to stay on top to a more gentle and cooperative role. That was a shift we couldn't make when the rest of the world was still agreeing that we are "#1". As they change their attitude, we are freed.

There are models for peacefully relinquishing power, by the way. The dismantling of the British Empire was largely peaceful, at least compared to other examples from history. We'd do well to step down gracefully.