In the mid-1950's, a geophysicist named M King Hubbert predicted that US oil production would peak sometime in the early 70's. He based this on the data he had about reserves, extraction efficiency, and estimates of how much new oil would be discovered. Everyone laughed.
US oil production peaked in 1970, and has been declining ever since.
Now that we have better data worldwide (such as from Russia and the Middle East) than we did 30 years ago, as well as better estimates of potential new discoveries, and plenty of new technology, Kenneth Deffeyes has redone Hubbert's calculation for world oil production. He finds that it will peak sometime between 2003 and 2007.
It is probably not wise to completely dismiss Deffeyes. He has had a long career in oil, from mapping survey regions as a young geologist working for Shell, to teaching aspiring geologists as a professor at Princeton, to advising the oil industry as a consultant on such matters as where and how to drill. He left the industry to become a professor in the late 60's after Hubbert's prediction was clearly becoming true, but he didn't stray too far. He knows what he is talking about.
The first several chapters of "Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage" serve to educate the reader about the fundamentals of geology and petroleum engineering. It was interesting to learn which regions might contain oil (and which definitely won't), the basics of drilling and extraction techniques, and the principles of "discoverability." All of these things have been studied and mapped out by very intelligent people. It is unlikely they have missed something big.
These early chapters also serve to demonstrate Deffeyes' broad knowledge of the field. Some have complained that he's not an "insider expert" because he doesn't work for an oil company and has been away from the intimate details in his academic office. I think this is nothing more than the usual scorn that industry people have for those who observe from the outside, be they market analysts, professors, or government regulators. Some scorn may be justified, but not all. Deffeyes is not dumb or horribly misinformed about anything major.
The middle of the book explains how Deffeyes went about his souped-up, globalized version of Hubbert's original calculation. Deffeyes has a lot of new tools that Hubbert didn't: a fast computer, more accurate data, and a much broader selection of statistical techniques. In Hubbert's day, this sort of analysis was rare-- people hardly distinguished a Gaussian from a Lorentz distribution outside of physics. Deffeyes neatly explains how he chose to do his calculation, and why. He treads a fine line between giving enough detail to satisfy another scientist, but not using equations or too many technical terms for the nonscientist. (He is, by the way, one of those rare scientists who can make his field accessible to non-experts).
I suppose there could be quibbles with this section. Deffeyes does not give a very rigorous analysis of how sensitive his result is to the choice of technique. What if he did something a little different? Would it give an answer for the peak that was different by a few years or a few decades? Actually, he answers this question in words, just not more deeply-- it is nearly impossible to get a result for the peak later than 2009 using the data he has and the assumptions he explains that he used. The peak really is imminent.
Then he goes more deeply into the question of "just how much oil is there?" Total, complete, when everything is summed up. This bears on the question of the peak because of course the peak would be later if we could discover some huge new oil field, say in the South China Sea, where new exploration is going on.
He actually answers the question for both US and world oil, using logical assumptions. He presents his results alongside those of others who have calculated total oil (like a good scientist), as well as results from the US Geological Survey (USGS). All the scientists' data are clustered around similar values while the USGS result is, as Deffeyes says tactfully, "implausibly high." The US probably has about 220 billion barrells of oil, while the world has about 2 trillion. The USGS comes up with 362 billion for the US and 3 trillion for the world. Let's all smile indulgantly now-- and speculate on what the USGS is smoking.
The remainder of the book is devoted to the future of fossil fuels and to energy in general. Deffeyes is very clear: we do not have an impending energy shortage, we have an impending oil shortage. The oil is not going to run out this decade, it's just going to peak. As the supply drops, the price will rise. The lights are not going to go out. Instead, we will pay higher prices until the pain starts forcing some adjustments. For instance, we may decide that the risks of nuclear power are acceptable, or that the costs of solar and wind power are acceptable.
There will be a somewhat painful transition period, during which we are still in denial about the shortage of oil. We may redouble our exploration efforts. We will probably devote more resources to finding really efficient extraction techniques that recover a higher percentage of the buried oil. But by reading the middle chapters of "Hubbert's Peak," the reader knows that no miracles await us. We cannot be saved from Deffeyes' Peak unless we discover a vast new oilfield equivalent to the entire Middle East. Any bets on whether such a thing exists somewhere on Earth? If yes, I've got a bridge to sell you too.
More darkly, this book provides insight into our hungry interest in Iraq and Saudi Arabia. The latter we work hard to keep as friends, and the former is weak enough that we can probably take them over and control access to their reserves. Not coincidentally, these countries have a hell of a lot of oil. The US only has about 1/10th of the world's oil. And we use far more than that. (If you own a frippin' SUV, sell the damn thing and get a hybrid. It's a least a step in the right direction).
This book gets a "strong +" for a bunch of reasons. Deffeyes is a wonderful writer who can actually explain science, even using a touch of humor. Better yet, he tells us something significant that is of immediate importance. I hope a lot of people read and understand this book.
Copyright © Kim Allen 2003
